Elon Musk claims that Tesla Robotaxi will come to California within the next 2 months, pending regulatory approval, but no one but Tesla shareholders appear to believe him.
Tesla has moved the goal post on self -driving for years. Moving away from his promise of unattended self-driving in all consumer vehicles built since 2016 to now a robotaxi service in a geo-fence area operated by an internal fleet and currently with supervisors in the car.
Despite moving the target post, the Tesla shareholders are holding on to the hope that the car manufacturer may be scaling faster than Waymo, which has a significant lead with operations in several cities and without supervisors inside the vehicles.
CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will expand its Robotaxi Service Area in Austin as it currently only covers South Austin.
CEO also said Tesla will bring Robotaxi to the Bay area of California with “a month or two” and that the company is just waiting for “regulatory approvals”:
This news sent Tesla’s stock sky -high yesterday, but it seems that only shareholders thought the CEO.
The odds of Tesla, who brought his Robotaxi to California on the Polymarket prediction market, fell only 18.5% after Musk’s comments:
The odds were over 30% at the end of June before Musk commented on July 9.
The odds reflect the fact that Musk is lying, which the California Department of Motor Vehicles confirmed in an E email to Reuters.
Tesla obtained a Ride-Hailing Permit in California earlier this year, but it is not for self-driving vehicles. The car manufacturer requires three more permits to launch the same service it launched in Austin.
CA DMV said Tesla has not yet applied for these permits from Thursday, July 10:
“To date, Tesla has not applied for neither a driverless test or implementation permit.”
If Tesla has not even applied for the permits, it would mean that the bottleneck is not legislative approval as Musk claimed.
California requires multiple permissions to run an autonomous riding-hailing service in various testing and commercial phases. They also require companies that develop autonomous driving systems release their release data, something Tesla has avoided like the plague for years.
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It shows that only Tesla shareholders believe Musk at this time. With a benefit of only 21%, he doesn’t suffer from most people, and people are understandably skeptical of what he says.
To be righteous, the prediction markets also often add requirements that Robotaxi is available to the wider public and does not have supervisors, which disqualifies what Tesla currently offers in Austin.
At one point, reality will have to be included, and shareholders will realize that Tesla has the same bottlenecks in scaling of Robotaxi as Waymo does for his own service – minus perhaps the fact that Waymo is more cautious with certainty.
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